Spatiotemporal Assessment of Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Associating with Socio-Economic Impacts in The Southern Alborz Mountains, Iran

Document Type : Original Research Article

Authors

Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, 1983963113 Tehran, Iran

10.48308/set.2026.243474.1182

Abstract

Accurate prediction and assessment of diverse drought types are crucial for sustainable water resource management, environmental protection, and socio-economic resilience. This study explores the interconnections between meteorological, hydrological, and socio-economic droughts across selected sub-basins in the southern of the Alborz Mountains, Iran. It focuses on evaluating the relationship between two meteorological drought indices—the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)—and the hydrological drought index, the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), while also examining associated socio-economic impacts. In the first phase, a comparative analysis of SPI and SPEI revealed a strong correlation, with SPEI showing a faster and more sensitive response to drought conditions. This highlights the influence of evapotranspiration in arid and semi-arid environments and supports the selection of SPEI as a more appropriate index in such regions. The second phase involved analyzing five sub-basins with long-term data records to evaluate meteorological and hydrological drought interactions. Although the correlation between SPEI and SSI was weak, likely due to temporal response lags, their overall trend patterns were consistent. In the final phase, socio-economic dimensions were introduced by analyzing cropland area and population metrics within the selected sub-basins. The findings showed no statistically significant relationships between these socio-economic indicators and the drought indices, suggesting the influence of additional mediating factors. Overall, the study underscores the multifaceted, non-linear nature of drought impacts and calls for integrated, multi-dimensional approaches in drought monitoring and management to enhance resilience and adaptive capacity in vulnerable regions.

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References

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