Design of a System Dynamics Model for Food Security Based on the Water–Food–Energy Nexus in Iran

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Research Article

Authors

Faculty of Industrial Management and Technology, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Food security under increasing water and energy constraints has become a critical challenge for arid and semi-arid countries. Iran, facing groundwater depletion, energy shortages, climate change, and population growth, requires integrated and feasible policy solutions beyond sectoral approaches. This study develops a national-scale system dynamics model to analyze wheat-based food security in Iran within the Water–Food–Energy (WEF) Nexus framework. The model captures nonlinear feedbacks among wheat production and demand, surface and groundwater dynamics, electricity availability for irrigation pumping, and farmers’ behavioral responses. Using historical data (2006–2024), the model is validated and simulated over the 2025–2040 horizon. Five combined policy scenarios are evaluated, focusing on demand management, post-harvest loss reduction, wheat water productivity improvement, irrigation efficiency enhancement, and pump efficiency optimization. Results indicate that under the baseline scenario, the wheat gap reaches 5.59 million tons by 2040. In contrast, the most effective combined policy—integrating productivity improvement, irrigation efficiency, and pump optimization—eliminates the deficit and generates a surplus of approximately 0.37 million tons. Simultaneously, cultivated area declines by 27.6%, water consumption by 39.3%, and energy consumption by nearly 50%. The findings demonstrate that integrated cross-sectoral policies, supported by system dynamics modeling, can simultaneously improve food security, reduce resource pressure, and enhance long-term sustainability and resilience in resource-constrained countries.

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Sustainable Earth Trends

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 05 February 2026

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