Analyzing Trends and Exploring the Correlation Between Runoff and Precipitation in the Armand River Basin

Document Type : Original Research Article

Authors

1 Department of Geography, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran

2 Water Research Center, Isfahan (Khorasan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran

Abstract

This study examines temporal trends and discharge patterns over 35 years in the Armand River Basin using data collected from synoptic and hydrometric stations (1986-2020). Statistical analysis and graphical tests like the Mann-Kendall test, Pearson correlation, and Spearman correlation were employed. Results show a notable negative trend in average annual and winter precipitation at the Shahrekord station since 1994 and 1996, respectively, with other stations exhibiting decreasing rainfall trends across all seasons without a clear pattern. The analysis of runoff trends across hydrometric stations in the Armand Basin indicates a significant decrease in both annual and seasonal runoff, particularly notable in the summer season. These trends align with observed changes in precipitation across different seasons, confirming the decreasing runoff trend. Pearson's and Spearman's correlation coefficients show a statistically significant correlation (p < 0.05) between runoff and precipitation, with coefficients of 0.612 and 0.595, respectively, supporting this relationship. Regression variance analysis confirms the linear assumption of this relationship, illustrated by scatter diagrams depicting the intensity, direction, and type of relationship between the two variables in the Armand River basin. The linear graphs indicate a positive relationship between precipitation and runoff in the basin. This is evident from the upward slope of the points, moving from left to right. Additionally, the concentration of points around the regression line suggests a strong and intense relationship between runoff and precipitation in the studied basin.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Ansari, M. Nouri, G. & Fatahi, P., 2017. Investigation of Temperature Precipitation and Flow Trend Using Nonparametric Mankendall (Case Study: Kaju River in Sistan and Baluchestan). Watershed Management Research Journal, 7(14), 152-158.
Basheer A, Lu H, Omer A, Ali A, Abdelgader A., 2016. Impacts of Climate Change under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios on the Streamflow in the Dinder River and Ecosystem Habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20: 1331–1353.
Bhatta, B. Shrestha, S. Shrestha, P. K. & Talchabhadel, R., 2019. Evaluation and Application of a SWAT Model to Assess the Climate Change Impact on the Hydrology of the Himalayan River Basin. Catena, 181, 104082.
Farajzadeh, M. Rajaei Najafabadi, S. & Gouydel Rahimi, Y., 2012. Detection of the Effect of Precipitation Fluctuations on Surface Runoff Fluctuations in the Sarakhs Watershed. Journal of Geographical Studies of Arid Areas, 3(7), 11-24.
Farrokhnia, A. & Mareed, S., 2014. Assessment of the Effects of Precipitation and Temperature Changes on the Streamflow Trend of the Lake Urmia Watershed. Water and Wastewater Journal, 25(3), 86-97.
Gandomkar, A. & Raeisi, T., 2012. Investigation of the relationship between precipitation and runoff in the Goujan basin (Karoon branch). Scientific-Research Quarterly of Geographic Data, 21(81), 38-40.
Imani, T. Delqandi, M. & Imamgholizadeh, P., 2018. Investigating the effects of climate change on the runoff of Babolroud basin, M.Sc. Dissertation, Shahrood University of Technology (In Persian).
Meshkin Nezhad, S. Mashal, M. & Najaf, H., 2013. Simulation of the Climate Change Impact on Runoff in the Dez Dam Area. International Journal of Agriculture and Crop Sciences, 6(3), 121-126.
Mirshakaran, Y. Kakapour, V. & Zarei, A., 2021. Assess the effect of climate change on precipitation and temperature using AR4 models (Case Study: Gharasoo Basin of Kermanshah province), Journal of Climate Change Research, 2(8), 23-34.
Mo'tamedi Vaziri, B. Kiadeliri, H. Asghari, A. & Eskandari, A., 2021. Evaluation of Climate Change Effects on Groundwater Recharge in the Karaj Watershed. Journal of Renewable Natural Resources Research, 12(1), 55-72.
Naderi, M., 2020. The Effect of Climate Change on Inflow Discharge and Reservoir Volume of Doroodzan Dam in Northern Fars Province. Journal of Earth Sciences, 29(115), 259-286.
Nami, M., 2022. Investigating and Predicting Climatic Changes in the Jazmourian Watershed. Scientific-Research Quarterly of Geographic Data, 31(124), 137-147.
Negahban, S. & Makarem, M., 2022. Investigation and Prediction of Drought Effects on Changes in Lake Miarloo and Its Surrounding Land Uses Using Remote Sensing. Journal of Climate Change Research, 3(10), 71-82.
Norouz Valashdi, R. & Bahrami Bechaghchi, S., 2023. Detection of Climate Change Effects on Snow Cover in the Northern Alborz Watershed Using the CPA Method. Journal of Watershed Engineering and Management, 15(3), 386-403.
Omidar, Sh. Sedki, L. Fatahi, Q. Kihani, M. & Nazimi, K., 2012. Province studies of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari. Book Publishing Companies of Iran.136 p.
Papadimitriou, L. Koutroulis L, Grillakis M. & Tsanis I., 2016. High-end Climate Change Impact on European Runoff and Low Flows – Exploring the Effects of Forcing Biases. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20, 1785–1808.
Radhapyari, K. Datta, S. Dutta, S. & Barman, R., 2021. Impacts of Global Climate Change on Water Quality and Its Assessment. Pages 229-275. In: Thokchom, B., Qiu, P., Singh, P., & Iyer P.K. (Eds.). (2021). Impacts of Global Climate Change on Water Quality and Its Assessment. Elsevier Publication. 446p.
Rajaei, F., 1402. Prediction of future climate changes in the Tajen watershed, Environmental Science Studies, 8(1), 6013-6022.
Salmanzadeh Yazdi, A.M. Hayatzadeh, A. Fathzadeh, A. & Fazelpour, M., 2022. Modeling the Hydrological Behavior of a Watershed Affected by Future Precipitation Regime Changes: A Case Study of the Hosseinabad, Zain, and Talangobam Watershed in Kerman Province. Journal of Climate Change Research, 3(12), 37-52.
Santos, J.C.N. Andrade, E.M. Medeiros, P.H.A. Guerreiro, M.J.S. & Palacio, H.A.Q., 2017. Effect of Rainfall Characteristics on Runoff and Water Erosion for Different Land Uses in a Tropical Semiarid Region. Water Resources Management, 13(1), 173-185.
Shakeryan, S. Torabi Poddeh, H. Shahinejad, B. & Naqvi, H., 2019. Investigating the Trend of Changes in Precipitation and River Discharge in the Karun Basin Using the Mann-Kendall Test. Journal of Iran Water Resources Research, 15(3), 272-282.

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics