Document Type : Original Research Article
Authors
1
Department of Urban Planning and Design, Art University of Isfahan, Iran& Member of Center for Regional/Spatial Researches, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2
Department of Statistics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran
Abstract
This paper addresses the literature gap in analyzing the impacts of climate change on peri-urban agriculture, with a focus on the Tehran city region, a critical agricultural hub in Iran that is vulnerable to climate variability. The objective was to quantify the impacts of climate change on the yields of key crops—wheat, barley, apples, walnuts, grapes, cucumbers, watermelons, cotton, and alfalfa—using quantile regression models (0.25, 0.50, 0.75) to capture heterogeneous yield responses. The models, applied to crop yield records from 1994 to 2014 and climatic data from five synoptic stations, are robust to outliers and estimate conditional quantiles of yield distributions. Impacts were projected for three time slices (2030s, 2060s, 2080s) under IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results reveal that climate variability has a significant but non-monotonic impact on major crop yields. The highest positive and negative impacts are on walnuts and apples, respectively. These results have many implications for planners and other stakeholders involved in peri-urban agriculture and can provide important insights for place-specific adaptation and mitigation measures. Several adaptation strategies can be implemented to mitigate negative impacts and capitalize on potential benefits, including modifications to crop cultivars and planting schedules, the development of institutional frameworks and infrastructure to address water scarcity and enhance food security, and the education of farmers on climate-related challenges and the adoption of advanced agricultural technologies.
Keywords
Main Subjects
)