Considering the importance of vegetation, this study investigated the vulnerability of vegetation to drought using the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) in the northern counties of Kerman. Based on the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), months April, May, June, and July, were selected as the study periods. Using Land Surface Temperature (LST) and EVI data derived respectively from the MOD11A1 and MOD13A2 products for the period 2001–2025, the mean Temperature Condition Index (TCI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) were calculated for the study months in each county. After combining these two indices, the VHI was computed. By classifying VHI, the Probability of Vegetation Vulnerability Index (PVVI) was obtained. Furthermore, by considering the regional weighted mean center of the VHI index, the spatial–temporal distribution pattern of drought was determined using the gravity center shift model. The results indicated that the lowest PVVI in most counties occurred in June, while the highest of it occurred in April and May. The mean PVVI values also showed that in most counties the average values decreased in June compared to the previous months, with the exception of Rigan, where the index increased in June relative to the previous month. The results of the gravity center shift model indicated that the greatest expansion of drought among the study months occurred in June, with a spread of approximately 14 km totally or 0.56 Km per year. Overall, the results of this study can be useful for regional, provincial, and national decision‑making aimed at sustainable vegetation management.