Medium-sized cities across the developing world confront deeply entangled economic, social, and institutional pressures that conventional, sector-bound planning has repeatedly failed to resolve. This study set out to identify the key drivers shaping the future of Shahrekord’s City Development Strategy (CDS) through a futures study’s lens, grounded in Michel Godet’s prospective structural analysis. Methodologically, the research is applied in orientation and descriptive–analytical in design, drawing on prospective structural analysis and the cross-impact matrix (MICMAC) method (1) economic and financial, (2) socio-cultural and demographic, (3) physical–spatial and environmental, (4 territorial development. A multidisciplinary expert panel of forty specialists (N=40) was selected through combined purposive and snowball sampling within a structured two-round Delphi process. Participants evaluated a 57×57cross-impact matrix using a standardized four-point influence scale (0 to 3), evaluating 57 variables categorized into six key dimensions: (1) economic and financial, (2) socio-cultural and demographic, (3) physical–spatial and environmental, (4) transportation and accessibility, (5) urban governance and management, and (6) livability and urban services. The structural diagnostics reveal that Shahrekord’s CDS operates as an intrinsically unstable and highly sensitive system, evidenced by the high concentration and dispersion of variables along the diagonal axis of the influence–dependence plane. Eleven key drivers ultimately emerged from the direct and indirect influence analyses, predominantly functioning as critical linkage variables clustering around livability, competitiveness, and participatory governance. Policies supporting innovation and research exerted the strongest direct influence, while access to affordable housing carried the greatest indirect weight—together constituting the system’s principal levers of change. The findings suggest that urban sustainability in Shahrekord hinges on abandoning isolated, rigid master-planning interventions in favor of leverage-based strategies that weave together institutional capacity building, responsive governance, innovative financing instruments, and equitable access to services. By pinpointing these critical leverage points, the study offers a structured basis for strategic prioritization in medium-sized cities elsewhere. Future research should integrate these structural leverage points into dynamic simulation models (e.g., System Dynamics) to evaluate longitudinal policy scenarios under urban uncertainty.