Zoning and Probabilistic Assessment of Land Subsidence Effects on Infrastructure Based on Site Characteristics and Geotechnical Parameters Using Abaqus Numerical Modeling (Case Study: Isfahan City)

Baghaii Ardestani, Ali; Nadi, Bahram; Bayat, Meysam

doi:10.48308/set.2026.245902.1207

Zoning and Probabilistic Assessment of Land Subsidence Effects on Infrastructure Based on Site Characteristics and Geotechnical Parameters Using Abaqus Numerical Modeling (Case Study: Isfahan City)

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Research Article

Authors

Ali Baghaii Ardestani

Bahram Nadi

Meysam Bayat

Department of Civil Engineering, Na.C., Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran

10.48308/set.2026.245902.1207

Abstract

Land subsidence is a critical geo-environmental hazard resulting from the over-exploitation of groundwater resources, which threatens the stability of urban structures and infrastructure. The objective of this study is to investigate the subsidence mechanism in the Isfahan-Borkhar Plain through numerical analysis using ABAQUS software. By utilizing geotechnical data from exploratory boreholes and applying the Mohr-Coulomb constitutive model, the impact of groundwater level decline, bedrock slope, and soil mechanical parameters on vertical deformations were evaluated. The modeling results indicate that groundwater level decline plays a decisive role in land subsidence; for instance, at a 15-degree slope, an increase in drawdown from 30 to 110 meters increases vertical displacement from 1.104 to 2.385 meters. The findings reveal that the presence of fine-grained layers with low permeability, combined with increasing bedrock slope, exacerbates the region’s sensitivity to subsidence and renders a portion of the deformations irreversible. The close agreement between the numerical results and field observations confirms the accuracy of this numerical framework in predicting subsidence patterns. Ultimately, based on the findings, comprehensive strategies—including sustainable groundwater management, continuous monitoring using remote sensing data, and geotechnical-based urban planning—are recommended to mitigate risks and protect critical infrastructure in the region.

Keywords

ABAQUS

Groundwater

Isfahan-Borkhar plain

Land subsidence

Numerical modeling

Subjects